Evidence graph

HISTORICAL_DATA

Every consequential conclusion is inspectable through observations, sources, entities, models, hypotheses, and confidence.

Event nikoi-2025-04-29 · 6 links · 5 evidence objects

Graph (textual Phase 1)

VESSEL ASSOCIATION (POTENTIAL)
       │
       ├── AIS trajectory          [ev-ais-polaris]
       ├── slick geometry          [ev-incident-report]
       ├── time relationship
       ├── spatial relationship
       └── source report

EVENT DETECTION
       │
       ├── geometry 21 km / 11 km²
       ├── centre 1.934143, 104.934432
       └── source-assigned certainty claim 100%

JURISDICTION / LOCATION
       │
       ├── Source A: Nikoi / Riau / Indonesia
       ├── Source B: Malaysian EEZ
       └── STATUS: SOURCE CLAIMS DIFFER

SMEIR CONTEXT
       │
       └── ecological / transport connectivity (≠ jurisdiction)

Source disagreement

Jurisdiction / location
Source A: Malaysian Exclusive Economic Zone
Incident report · REPORTED · HISTORICAL_DATA
Source B: Near Nikoi Island / Riau / Indonesia
Related case materials · REPORTED · HISTORICAL_DATA
SYSTEM STATUS: SOURCE CLAIMS DIFFER — REVIEW REQUIRED

This is not an error state. This is intelligence provenance functioning correctly.

REPORTEDHISTORICAL_DATAev-incident-report

Incident report — slick geometry

Source incident material records a marine anomaly dated 29 April 2025, length 21 km, area 11 km², centre 1.934143°N, 104.934432°E, with source-assigned detection certainty 100%.

Source: Supplied incident report
Observation time: 2025-04-29
Reliability: B (generally reliable institutional/report channel — unverified)
Credibility: 2 (probably true — single-source geometry)
REPORTEDHISTORICAL_DATAev-eez-claim

Jurisdiction claim — Malaysian EEZ

Incident report places the event in the Malaysian Exclusive Economic Zone.

Source: Supplied incident report
Observation time: 2025-04-29
REPORTEDHISTORICAL_DATAev-location-claim-a

Location claim — Nikoi / Riau / Indonesia

Related source material describes the case as near Nikoi Island / Riau / Indonesia. This disagrees with the Malaysian EEZ claim and is retained as a first-class source claim.

Source: Related case description materials
Observation time: 2025-04-29
INFERREDHISTORICAL_DATAev-ais-polaris

AIS correlation — POLARIS

Source materials identify tanker POLARIS (MMSI 477300300, flag HKG) under Potential Sources via AIS track correlation with slick geometry — not as a confirmed source.

Source: AIS correlation in source materials
Observation time: 2025-04-29
Reliability: B
Credibility: 3 (possibly true — association not causation)
INFERREDINFERRED_DATAev-smeir-context

SMEIR connectivity context

Event lies within the Singapore Maritime Environmental Intelligence Region ecological/transport boundary (Riau–Lingga system / approaches). Ecological connectivity ≠ legal jurisdiction.

Source: Marine Sentinel SMEIR definition

Links

  • candidate-polarissupported_byev-ais-polaris
  • candidate-polarisspatial_temporal_contextev-incident-report
  • nikoi-2025-04-29observed_asev-incident-report
  • nikoi-2025-04-29jurisdiction_claimev-eez-claim
  • nikoi-2025-04-29jurisdiction_claimev-location-claim-a
  • ev-eez-claimdisagrees_withev-location-claim-a