Incident workbench

REPLAYHISTORICAL_DATAUNDER_REVIEW

Marine anomaly — Nikoi regional system

What we observed

Date: 2025-04-29
Centre: 1.934143, 104.934432
Length: 21 km
Area: 11 km²
Event class: oil_slick / unknown_marine_anomaly

Historical marine pollution intelligence case in the Riau–Lingga / Singapore approaches system. Detection and geometry are retained as source claims. Vessel association is candidate-level only.

Source disagreement

Jurisdiction / location

Source A: Malaysian Exclusive Economic Zone

Incident report · REPORTED · HISTORICAL_DATA

Source B: Near Nikoi Island / Riau / Indonesia

Related case materials · REPORTED · HISTORICAL_DATA

SYSTEM STATUS: SOURCE CLAIMS DIFFER — REVIEW REQUIRED

This is not an error state. This is intelligence provenance functioning correctly.

Competing hypotheses

H1 — Vessel operational discharge (bilge/bunker) associated with POLARIS trackLeadingMODERATE

Supporting

ev-ais-polaris, ev-incident-report

Contradicting

—

Missing

authority confirmation; chemistry; drift model

H2 — Discharge from another vessel not yet identified in AIS correlationMODERATE

Supporting

ev-incident-report

Contradicting

ev-ais-polaris

Missing

full traffic picture; multi-provider AIS

H3 — Natural surface film / lookalike (false positive classification)LOW

Supporting

—

Contradicting

ev-incident-report

Missing

spectral validation; in-situ sample

H4 — Land–sea interface or upstream industrial release transported into areaLOW

Supporting

ev-smeir-context

Contradicting

—

Missing

rainfall/river discharge contemporaneous data; land-change evidence

Evidence chain

REPORTED
Incident report — slick geometry
Supplied incident report · HISTORICAL_DATA
REPORTED
Jurisdiction claim — Malaysian EEZ
Supplied incident report · HISTORICAL_DATA
REPORTED
Location claim — Nikoi / Riau / Indonesia
Related case description materials · HISTORICAL_DATA
INFERRED
AIS correlation — POLARIS
AIS correlation in source materials · HISTORICAL_DATA
INFERRED
SMEIR connectivity context
Marine Sentinel SMEIR definition · INFERRED_DATA

Open full evidence graph →

Multidimensional confidence

DetectionHIGH

ClassificationMODERATE

SpatialMODERATE

TemporalMODERATE

Vessel associationMODERATE

Causal attributionLOW

ModelUNKNOWN

Ecological consequenceMODERATE

Operational relevanceMODERATE

Overall intelligenceMODERATE

Why?

Source-assigned 100% detection certainty is retained as a claim, not re-labelled as system confirmation.
Vessel association confidence is separate from detection confidence.
Causal attribution remains low — association is not causation.
Location source claims disagree; spatial confidence is capped.

Candidate source

POTENTIAL_SOURCE — not a confirmed polluter

POLARIS

MMSI 477300300 · HKG · tanker

Association score: 0.62 (inspectable factors)

spatial_relationship: +0.22 — Track proximity to reported slick geometry
temporal_relationship: +0.18 — AIS activity on observation date window
track_compatibility: +0.12 — Trajectory consistent with corridor
source_characteristics: +0.10 — Tanker type relevant to oil/bunker class hypotheses

Vessel intelligence profile →

Relevance

Singapore nexus

Event is within SMEIR ecological/transport connectivity. Materiality to Singapore waters or port approaches is assessed as possible via regional currents and traffic patterns — not asserted as Singapore jurisdiction over the release site.

Transboundary

Source claims reference Malaysian EEZ and Indonesian (Riau/Nikoi) location narratives. Treated as transboundary environmental relevance for regional intelligence — not as assertion of authority by any single state actor inside this application.

Operational priority

MEDIUM — historical replay for methodology demonstration; would elevate under live confirmed slick with active shoreline or traffic risk.

Navigate

Environmental event profile →Case workspace →Generate briefing →Nikoi replay →